Predicting the 2025 Tony Awards

At This Substack, the Role of "Psychic Sylvia Browne" Will Be Played by Sloan Ciccone

UPDATE, JUNE 7: I circulated this post via email with a terrible typo! Please note that I believe Darrin Criss will and should win for Maybe Happy Ending.

I have a long backlog of reviews to write. Among the productions I’ve seen but yet to post about here are Operation: Mincemeat, Buena Vista Social Club, Real Women Have Curves, We Had a World, Grief Camp, and Sexual Misconduct of the Middle Classes. My delay has, at least in part, been due to a THIRD meniscus tear in my knees. Picture, if you will, this scene from a recent appointment with my doctor.

DOCTOR (looking at my MRI): So, you must be a marathoner.
DARRIN: No.
DOCTOR: Do you play football?
DARRIN: No.
DOCTOR: Then how did you do this to your knees?!
DARRIN: That’s homophobic.

I could go on, but I don’t want to confuse what’s important, which is…

…the Gay Super Bowl is almost here!

The Tony Awards are this Sunday and I obviously have to post my predictions of the winners, as well as whom I think should win (though I’ve only weighed in on the latter in instances where I’ve seen all or at least a majority of the nominees). Of course this isn’t a competition , but rest assured that I will update this post after the ceremony to let you know (1) what percentage I predicted correctly and (2) if I did better than my friends Austin and May.

Best Musical
"Buena Vista Social Club"
"Dead Outlaw"
"Death Becomes Her"
(WILL WIN) "Maybe Happy Ending" (SHOULD WIN)
"Operation Mincemeat: A New Musical"

Best Play
“English"
“The Hills of California"
“John Proctor is the Villain"
(WILL WIN) "Oh, Mary!"
“Purpose" (SHOULD WIN)

Musical Revival
“Floyd Collins"
“Gypsy"
“Pirates! The Penzance Musical"
(WILL WIN) "Sunset Boulevard" (SHOULD WIN)

Play Revival
(WILL WIN) "Eureka Day"
“Romeo + Juliet"
“Thornton Wilder's Our Town"
“Yellow Face" (SHOULD WIN)

Actor (Musical)*
(WILL WIN) Darren Criss, "Maybe Happy Ending" (SHOULD WIN)
Andrew Durand, "Dead Outlaw"
Tom Francis, "Sunset Boulevard"
Jonathan Groff, "Just in Time"
James Monroe Iglehart, "A Wonderful World: The Louis Armstrong Musical"
Jeremy Jordan, "Floyd Collins"
*This is one of the hardest categories for me to predict—not only because it's one of the closest, but because I haven't yet seen Groff's performance, which I suspect is the likeliest upset.

Actress (Musical)*
Megan Hilty, "Death Becomes Her"
(WILL WIN) Audra McDonald, "Gypsy" (SHOULD WIN)
Jasmine Amy Rogers, "BOOP! The Musical"
Nicole Scherzinger, "Sunset Boulevard"
Jennifer Simard, "Death Becomes Her"
*This year's toughest category to predict. I wouldn't be surprised if it’s taken by Scherzinger or even Rogers, who could benefit from the two top contenders splitting the majority of the vote. Still, I think McDonald's fantastic acting and the groundswell of support she's received following Patti LuPone's offensive remarks about her will tip the scales in her favor, outweighing whatever reservations people have about her vocals as Rose.

Actor (Play)
George Clooney, "Good Night, and Good Luck"
(WILL WIN) Cole Escola, "Oh, Mary!"
Jon Michael Hill, "Purpose"
Daniel Dae Kim, "Yellow Face"
Harry Lennix, "Purpose" (SHOULD WIN)
Louis McCartney, "Stranger Things: The First Shadow"

Actress (Play)
Laura Donnelly, "The Hills of California"
Mia Farrow, "The Roommate"
LaTanya Richardson Jackson, "Purpose"
Sadie Sink, "John Proctor is the Villain" (SHOULD WIN)
(WILL WIN) Sarah Snook, "The Picture of Dorian Gray"

Featured Actor (Musical)
Brooks Ashmanskas, "Smash"
Jeb Brown, "Dead Outlaw"
Danny Burstein, "Gypsy"
(WILL WIN) Jak Malone, "Operation Mincemeat"
Taylor Trensch, "Floyd Collins" (SHOULD WIN)

Featured Actress (Musical)*
(WILL WIN) Natalie Venetia Belcon, "Buena Vista Social Club"
Julia Knitel, "Dead Outlaw"
Gracie Lawrence, "Just in Time"
Justina Machado, "Real Women Have Curves" (SHOULD WIN)
Joy Woods, "Gypsy"
*If there's an upset in one race that appears to be a "sure thing," I bet it will be this one, with Machado deservedly taking the prize.

Featured Actor (Play)*
Glenn Davis, "Purpose" (SHOULD WIN)
Gabriel Ebert, "John Proctor is the Villain"
(WILL WIN) Francis Jue, "Yellow Face"
Bob Odenkirk, "Glengarry Glen Ross"
Conrad Ricamora. "Oh, Mary!"
*Almost as much of a tossup as Best Actress in a Musical, I could easily see Ricamora beating out Jue.

Featured Actress (Play)*
Tala Ashe. "English"
Jessica Hecht. "Eureka Day"
Marjan Neshat, "English"
Fina Strazza, "John Proctor is the Villain"
(WILL WIN) Kara Young, "Purpose" (SHOULD WIN)
*Another tossup—I can imagine Strazza (gross) or Hecht (grosser) prevailing. My real pick for "should win" wasn't nominated: Alena Arenas.

Director (Musical)
Saheem Ali, "Buena Vista Social Club"
(WILL WIN) Michael Arden, "Maybe Happy Ending"
David Cromer, "Dead Outlaw"
Christopher Gattelli, "Death Becomes Her"
Jamie Lloyd, "Sunset Boulevard" (SHOULD WIN)

Director (Play)
Knud Adams, "English"
Sam Mendes, "The Hills of California"
(WILL WIN) Sam Pinkleton, "Oh, Mary"
Danya Taymor, "John Proctor is the Villain" (SHOULD WIN)
Kip Williams, "The Picture of Dorian Gray"

Original Score
“Dead Outlaw": Music & Lyrics: David Yazbek and Erik Della Penna
“Death Becomes Her": Music & Lyrics: Julia Mattison and Noel Carey
(WILL WIN) "Maybe Happy Ending": Music: Will Aronson; Lyrics: Will Aronson and Hue Park (SHOULD WIN)
"Operation Mincemeat: A New Musical": Music & Lyrics: David Cumming, Felix Hagan, Natasha Hodgson and Zoë Roberts
“Real Women Have Curves: The Musical": Music & Lyrics: Joy Huerta and Benjamin Velez

Musical Book
“Buena Vista Social Club", Marco Ramirez
“Dead Outlaw", Itamar Moses
“Death Becomes Her", Marco Pennette
(WILL WIN) "Maybe Happy Ending", Will Aronson and Hue Park (SHOULD WIN)
"Operation Mincemeat: A New Musical", David Cumming, Felix Hagan, Natasha Hodgson and Zoë Roberts

Choreography
Joshua Bergasse, "Smash"
Camille A. Brown, "Gypsy"
Christopher Gattelli, "Death Becomes Her"
Jerry Mitchell, "Boop! The Musical" (SHOULD WIN)
(WILL WIN) Patricia Delgado and Justin Peck, "Buena Vista Social Club"

Orchestrations
Will Aronson: "Maybe Happy Ending"
Bruce Coughlin: "Floyd Collins"
David Cullen and Andrew Lloyd Webber: "Sunset Boulevard" (SHOULD WIN)
(WILL WIN) Marco Paguia: "Buena Vista Social Club"
Andrew Resnick and Michael Thurber: "Just in Time"

Scenic Design of a Play
David Bergman and Marg Horwell: "The Picture of Dorian Gray"
(WILL WIN) Miriam Buether and 59 Productions: "Stranger Things: The First Shadow"
Marsha Ginsberg: "English"
Rob Howell: "The Hills of California"
Scott Pask: "Good Night, and Good Luck"

Scenic Design of a Musical
Rachel Hauck, "Swept Away"
(WILL WIN) Dane Laffrey and George Reeve, "Maybe Happy Ending" (SHOULD WIN)
Arnulfo Maldonado, "Buena Vista Social Club"
Derek McLane, "Death Becomes Her"
Derek McLane, "Just in Time"

Costume Design of a Play
Brenda Abbandandolo, "Good Night, and Good Luck"
Marg Horwell, "The Picture of Dorian Gray"
Rob Howell, "The Hills of California"
(WILL WIN) Holly Pierson, "Oh, Mary!"
Brigitte Reiffenstuel, "Stranger Things: The First Shadow"

Costume Design of a Musical
Dede Ayite, "Buena Vista Social Club"
Gregg Barnes, "Boop! The Musical" (SHOULD WIN)
Clint Ramos, "Maybe Happy Ending"
(WILL WIN) Paul Tazewell, "Death Becomes Her"
Catherine Zuber, "Just in Time"

Lighting Design of a Play
David Bengali and Heather Gilbert: "Good Night, and Good Luck"
Natasha Chivers: "The Hills of California"
(WILL WIN) Jon Clark: "Stranger Things: The First Shadow"
Natasha Katz and Hannah Wasileski: "John Proctor Is the Villain"
Nick Schlieper: "The Picture of Dorian Gray"

Lighting Design of a Musical
(WILL WIN) Jack Knowles, "Sunset Boulevard" (SHOULD WIN)
Tyler Micoleau, "Buena Vista Social Club"
Ben Stanton, "Maybe Happy Ending"
Ruey Horng Sun and Scott Zielinski, "Floyd Collins"
Justin Townsend, "Death Becomes Her"

Sound Design of a Play
(WILL WIN) Paul Arditti, "Stranger Things: The First Shadow"
Palmer Hefferan, "John Proctor Is the Villain"
Daniel Kluger, "Good Night, and Good Luck"
Nick Powell, "The Hills of California"
Clemence Williams, "The Picture of Dorian Gray"

Sound Design of a Musical
(WILL WIN) Jonathan Deans, "Buena Vista Social Club"
Adam Fisher, "Sunset Boulevard" (SHOULD WIN)
Peter Hylenski, "Just in Time"
Peter Hylenski, "Maybe Happy Ending"
Dan Moses Schreier, "Floyd Collins"