Predicting the 2025 Tony Nominees

At This Substack, the Role of "Linda Georgian" Will Be Played by Sloan Ciccone

UPDATED MAY 1: Following the announcement of the 2025 Tony nominations, I’ve indicated below which of my predictions proved correct. Of the 83 predictions I made, 67, or 81%, turned out to be accurate. So, feel free to CALL ME MISS CLEO.

Everyone who knows me knows the Tony Awards broadcast—or, as I call it, “the Gay Super Bowl”—is my favorite night of the year. I anticipate the ceremony with the same rabid eagerness palpable in the audience during the first fifteen minutes at a performance of Sunset Blvd. as they await Norma Desmond’s entrance. Tomorrow, the 2025 nominations will be announced in a promise of adventure similar to Norma’s first offstage line of dialogue (“You there! Why are you so late?”).

April, like the character of the same name in Company, has been chaotic. Various demands have prevented me from seeing as many of the Tony eligible productions as I would have liked…though I did somehow make time to see Marilu Henner, Marsha Mason, and Julia Sweeney stumble their way through monologues in Joy Behar’s new “play” My First Ex-Husband, a blatant attempt to create her own version of The Vagina Monologues or Love, Loss and What I Wore that feels more like an open mic night of storytelling at the Albany County Jewish Community Center.

But I digress.

Although my visits to, and reviews of, many Tony contenders are still forthcoming, I’ve crafted the following predictions of this year’s nominees in select categories based on what I have seen, buzz in the theatre community, and the good ole overconfidence that comes from being a cis white male. To be clear, it’s a list of what I think will be nominated, not what I think should be nominated. The latter category would include three of my favorite performances of the season that just don’t seem to be factoring into most Tony conversations: Alana Arenas in Purpose, David Thaxton in Sunset Blvd., Taylor Trensch in Floyd Collins.

Lastly—because Substack always urges me to include more pictures—please enjoy this photograph of a cultural moment more significant than the creation of Hamilton Hamlet.

Glenn Close visits Nicole Scherzinger after last night’s performance of Sunset Blvd. | Photo and Inevitable Pulitzer: Bruce Glikas

The Predictions

Best Musical

1. Buena Vista Social Club
   - YES

2. Dead Outlaw
   - YES

3. Death Becomes Her (boooooooooooooooooooooo!)
   - YES

   (boooooooooooooooooooooo!)

4. Maybe Happy Ending
   - YES

5. Operation Mincemeat
   - YES

Best Play

1. English

   - YES

2. The Hills of California

   - YES

3. John Proctor is the Villain

   - YES

4. Oh, Mary!

   - YES

5. Purpose

   - YES

Best Revival of a Musical

1. Floyd Collins

   - YES

2. Gypsy

   - YES

3. Pirates! The Penzance Musical

   - YES

4. Sunset Blvd.

   - YES

Best Revival of a Play

1. Eureka Day

   - YES

2. Glengarry Glen Ross

   - NO

3. Romeo + Juliet

   - YES

4. Yellow Face

   - YES

Best Director of a Musical

1. Michael Arden / Maybe Happy Ending

   - YES

2. David Cromer / Dead Outlaw

   - YES

3. Robert Hastie / Operation Mincemeat

   - NO

4. Jamie Lloyd / Sunset Blvd.

   - YES

5. George C. Wolfe / Gypsy

   - NO (criminal…they really got this one wrong)

Best Director of a Play

1. Sam Mendes / The Hills of California

   - YES

2. Sam Pinkleton / Oh, Mary!

   - YES

3. Phylicia Rashad / Purpose

   - NO

4. Danya Taymor / John Proctor is the Villain

   - YES

5. Kip Williams / The Picture of Dorian Gray

   - YES

Best Choreography

1. Joshua Bergasse / Smash

   - YES

2. Warren Carlyle / Pirates! The Penzance Musical

   - NO

3. Patricia Delgado and Justin Peck / Buena Vista Social Club

   - YES

4. Christopher Gattelli / Death Becomes Her

   (boooooooooooooooooooooo!)

   - YES (boooooooooooooooooooooo!)

5. Jerry Mitchell / BOOP! The Musical

   - YES

Best Original Score

1. Will Aronson and Hue Park / Maybe Happy Ending

2. David Cumming, Felix Hagan, Natasha Hodgson, and Zoë Roberts / Operation Mincemeat

3. Joy Huerta and Benjamin Velez / Real Women Have Curves: The Musical

4. Julia Mattison and Noel Carey / Death Becomes Her

   (boooooooooooooooooooooo!)

5. David Yazbek and Erik Della Penna / Dead Outlaw

Best Book of a Musical

1. Will Aronson and Hue Park / Maybe Happy Ending

   - YES

2. David Cumming, Felix Hagan, Natasha Hodgson, and Zoë Roberts / Operation Mincemeat

   - YES

3. Lisa Loomer and Nell Benjamin / Real Women Have Curves: The Musical

   - NO

4. Itamar Moses / Dead Outlaw

   - YES

5. Marco Pennette / Death Becomes Her

   (boooooooooooooooooooooo!)

   - YES (boooooooooooooooooooooo!)

Best Leading Actress in a Musical

1. Megan Hilty / Death Becomes Her

   - YES

2. Audra McDonald / Gypsy

   - YES

3. Jasmine Amy Rogers / BOOP! The Musical

   - YES

4. Nicole Scherzinger / Sunset Blvd.

   - YES

5. Jennifer Simard / Death Becomes Her

   - YES

Best Leading Actor in a Musical

1. Darren Criss / Maybe Happy Ending¹

2. Andrew Durand / Dead Outlaw

3. Tom Francis / Sunset Blvd.

4. Jonathan Groff / Just in Time

5. Jeremy Jordan / Floyd Collins

Best Leading Actress in a Play

1. Laura Donnelly / The Hills of California

   - YES

2. Mia Farrow / The Roommate

   - YES

3. LaTanya Richardson Jackson / Purpose

   - YES

4. Sadie Sink / John Proctor is the Villain

   - YES

5. Sarah Snook / The Picture of Dorian Gray

   - YES

Best Leading Actor in a Play

1. George Clooney / Good Night, and Good Luck

   - YES

2. Kit Connor / Romeo + Juliet

   - NO

3. Cole Escola / Oh, Mary!

   - YES

4. Jake Gyllenhaal / Othello

   - NO

5. Jon Michael Hill / Purpose

   - YES

Best Featured Actress in a Musical

1. Natalie Venetia Belcon / Buena Vista Social Club

2. Justina Machado / Real Women Have Curves: The Musical

3. Jinkx Monsoon / Pirates! The Penzance Musical

4. Bernadette Peters / Stephen Sondheim's Old Friends

5. Joy Woods, Gypsy

Best Featured Actor in a Musical

1. Brooks Ashmanskas / Smash

   - YES

2. Danny Burstein / Gypsy

   - YES

3. Jak Malone / Operation Mincemeat

   - YES

4. Thom Sesma / Dead Outlaw

   - NO

5. Christopher Sieber / Death Becomes Her

   - NO

Best Featured Actress in a Play

1. Leanne Best / The Hills of California

   - NO

2. Jessica Hecht / Eureka Day

   - YES

3. Bianca Leigh / Oh, Mary!

   - NO

4. Amalia Yoo / John Proctor is the Villain

   - NO

5. Kara Young / Purpose

   - YES

Best Featured Actor in a Play

1. Kieran Culkin / Glengarry Glen Ross

   - NO

2. Gabriel Ebert / John Proctor Is the Villain

   - YES

3. Francis Jue / Yellow Face

   - YES

4. Bob Odenkirk / Glengarry Glen Ross

   - YES

5. Conrad Ricamora / Oh, Mary!

   - YES

1. I would not be doing my duty as a gay man if I did not make sure everyone sees this collage of Darren Criss thirst traps that was recently brought to my attention. Now, please read the following sentence with your best Samantha Jones cadence: I’d say it’s a definitely happy ending.