Predicting the 2026 Tony Nominees

At this Substack, the role of "Linda Georgian" will be played by Sloan Ciccone (old joke/new predictions)

It’s Gay Year’s Eve!

Tomorrow, Uzo Aduba and Darren Criss will announce the nominations for the The 79th Annual Tony Awards, which will be held on June 7. Last year, 81% of my predictions were correct (67 out of 83…look at that math…clearly, I’m ready to be cast in Proof). Let’s see if I can beat my own record!

• MAY 5 UPDATE: Following today’s announcement of the 2026 Tony nominations, I am tickled pink to say that of the 80 predictions I made, 65.85 (because only partial credit was awarded for alternates) were correct. In other words, I predicted 82% of the nominations correctly, which means I beat my number from last year! It’s nice to know I have good instincts somewhere.

Standard disclaimer: these are predictions for who will be nominated, which is different than who should be nominated. The toughest calls to make are for the featured actor and actress categories, especially for the plays.

Best Musical

• The Lost Boys

• Schmigadoon!

• Titaníque

• Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)

Best Play

• The Balusters

• Giant

• Liberation

• Little Bear Ridge Road

Best Revival of a Musical

• Cats: The Jellicle Ball

• Ragtime

• The Rocky Horror Show

Best Revival of a Play

• Becky Shaw

• Death of a Salesman

• Joe Turner’s Come and Gone

• Marjorie Prime

• Oedipus

  • One of the two hardest categories for me to predict!

  • Likeliest alternates (in order of likelihood): Bug, Proof, and/or Fallen Angels could take the place of Joe Turner’s Come and Gone and/or Marjorie Prime

Best Director of a Musical

• Michael Arden, The Lost Boys

• Lear DeBessonet, Ragtime

• Christopher Gatelli, Schmigadoon!

• Tim Jackson, Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)

• Zhailon Levingston and Bill Rauch, Cats: The Jellicle Ball

  • Likeliest alternate: Sam Pinkleton for The Rocky Horror Show over Gatelli, who will definitely be recognized with a choreography nomination

Best Director of a Play

• Nicholas Hytner, Giant

• Robert Icke, Oedipus

• Anne Kauffman, Marjorie Prime

• Joe Mantello, Death of a Salesman

• Whitney White, Liberation

  • Likeliest alternate: Trip Cullman for Becky Shaw over Kauffman

Lead Actress in a Musical

• Sara Chase, Schmigadoon!

• Caissie Levy, Ragtime

• Lea Michele, Chess

• Marla Mindelle, Titaníque

• Christiani Pitts, Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)

  • Likeliest alternate: Jessica Vosk for Beaches or Stephanie Hsu for The Rocky Horror Show over Michele

Lead Actor in a Musical

• Nicholas Christopher, Chess

• Luke Evans, The Rocky Horror Show

• Joshua Henry, Ragtime

• Sam Tutty, Two Strangers

• Brandon Uranowitz, Ragtime

Lead Actress in a Play

• Rose Byrne, Fallen Angels

• Carrie Coon, Bug

• Ayo Edebiri, Proof

• Susannah Flood, Liberation

• Lesley Manville, Oedipus

  • Likeliest alternate: Laurie Metcalf for Little Bear Ridge Road, Anika Noni Rose for The Balusters or Kelli O’Hara for Fallen Angels over Edebiri

Lead Actor in a Play

• Adrien Brody, The Fear of 13

• Nathan Lane, Death of a Salesman

• John Lithgow, Giant

• Daniel Radcliffe, Every Brilliant Thing

• Mark Strong, Oedipus

  • Likeliest alternate: Will Harrison for Punch or Jon Bernthal for Dog Day Afternoon over Adrien Brody

Featured Actress in a Musical

• Shoshana Bean, The Lost Boys

• Ana Gasteyer, Schmigadoon!

• McKenzie Kurtz, Schmigadoon!

• Nichelle Lewis, Ragtime

• “Tempress” Chasity Moore, Cats: The Jellicle Ball

  • Likeliest alternate: Shaina Taub for Ragtime or Hannah Cruz for Chess over Kurtz

  • My wish for the category: Isabelle McCalla for Schmigadoon! over Kurtz or Moore

Featured Actor in a Musical

• Ali Louis Bourzgui, The Lost Boys

• Max Clayton, Schmigadoon!

• André De Shields, Cats: The Jellicle Ball

• Jim Parsons, Titaníque

• Ben Levi Ross, Ragtime

  • Likeliest alternate: Layton Williams or Constantine Rousouli for Titaníque over Parsons

  • My wish for the category: Sydney James Harcourt for Cats: The Jellicle Ball over Bourzgui’s Kiefer Sutherland illusion

Featured Actress in a Play

• Betsy Aidem, Liberation

• Laurie Metcalf, Death of a Salesman

• Cynthia Nixon, Marjorie Prime

• June Squibb, Marjorie Prime

• Kara Young, Proof

  • The second of the two hardest categories for me to predict!

  • Likeliest alternate: Linda Emond for Becky Shaw or Aya Cash for Giant over Nixon

  • My wish for the category: Marylouise Burke for The Balusters over Nixon or even Aidem

Featured Actor in a Play

• Christopher Abbott, Death of a Salesman

• Danny Burstein, Marjorie Prime

• Alden Ehrenreich, Becky Shaw

• Elliot Levey, Giant

• Ruben Santiago-Hudson, Joe Turner’s Come and Gone

  • Likeliest alternate: Charlie Thurston for Liberation or Ben Ahlers for Death of a Salesman over Santiago-Hudson

Best Choreography

• Omari Wiles and Arturo Lyons, Cats: The Jellicle Ball

• Lorin Latarro, Chess

• Lauren Yalango-Grant and Christopher Cree Grant, The Lost Boys

• Ani Taj, The Rocky Horror Show¹

• Christopher Gattelli, Schmigadoon!

  • Likeliest alternate: Ellenore Scott for Ragtime over Latarro

Best Original Score

• Iris Rainer Dart and Mike Stoller, Beaches

• The Rescues, The Lost Boys

• Stephen Schwartz, The Queen of Versailles

• Cinco Paul, Schmigadoon!

• Jim Barne and Kit Buchan, Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)

  • Likeliest alternate: People really love to hate Beaches and The Queen of Versailles, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Caroline Shaw for Death of a Salesman or Kris Bowers for Proof sneaks in

Best Book of a Musical

• David Hornsby and Chris Hoch, The Lost Boys

• Cinco Paul, Schmigadoon!

• Marla Mindelle, Constantine Rousouli, and Tye Blue, Titaníque

• Jim Barne and Kit Buchan, Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)

1. Important correction: when this piece was first posted, I mistakenly wrote that The Rocky Horror Show was choreographed by its director, Sam Pinkleton (who was Tony nominated for his choreography of Natasha, Pierre, and the Great Comet of 1812).