Predicting the 2026 Tony Winners
A strange season—for me and Broadway
It has been an unusual season on Broadway. Typically, musicals dominate the buzz and the box office, but this year, there’s been a paucity of new offerings, and two of the four eligible revivals (only three of which were even nominated) were transfers of productions first staged off-Broadway. This season, to paraphrase the Prince of Denmark, the plays have been the thing.
There was perhaps no hotter ticket than the one-man show Every Brilliant Thing while it starred Tony nominee Daniel Radcliffe. Although it ended its limited run in February, people are still talking about Robert Icke’s adaptation of Oedipus so enthusiastically, its leading lady, Lesley Manville, is the odds-on favorite to win Best Actress. Despite initially getting off to a slow start (if only I’d grabbed one of those TDF seats during previews or used my mailer!), word of mouth has turned Joe Mantello’s revival of Death of a Salesman with Nathan Lane and Laurie Metcalf into such a hit, orchestra seats are going for $699—for a play! A play that’s had six Broadway revivals, the most recent of which closed in 2023!! A play for which Nathan Lane seems emphatically wrong!!! The season included such a preponderance of acclaimed star-turns, theatre darlings like Cynthia Nixon, Kara Young, and Linda Emond weren’t even nominated for their acclaimed performances, which was also true of several Hollywood A-listers doing more polarizing work, like Adrien Brody, Jean Smart, and Ayo Edebiri.
Strangest of all? I didn’t get to see a lot of the nominated plays. (I’d explain why, but my subtitle only promises a soupçon of memoir.) Consequently, in many categories, I didn’t feel equipped to weigh in with MY PICK of who should win. Instead, I opted to name only MY PREDICTION of who will win, based on what I’m hearing from friends, which prognosticators I trust, and how earlier awards ceremonies played out.
Let’s see if I can break 85%….
Best Play
MY PICK: The Balusters by David Lindsay-Abaire
Giant by Mark Rosenblatt
MY PREDICTION: Liberation by Bess Wohl
Little Bear Ridge Road by Samuel D. Hunter
Best Musical
The Lost Boys
MY PICK and MY PREDICTION: Schmigadoon!
Titaníque!
Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)
Best Book of a Musical
The Lost Boys - David Hornsby and Chris Hoch
MY PICK and MY PREDICTION: Schmigadoon! - Cinco Paul
Titaníque! - Marla Mindelle, Constantine Rousouli and Tye Blue
Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York) - Jim Barne and Kit Buchan
Best Original Score (Music and/or Lyrics) Written for the Theatre
Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman - Music: Caroline Shaw
August Wilson’s Joe Turner’s Come and Gone - Music: Steve Bargonetti
The Lost Boys - Music & Lyrics: The Rescues
MY PICK: Schmigadoon! - Music & Lyrics: Cinco Paul
MY PREDICTION: Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York) - Music & Lyrics: Jim Barne and Kit Buchan
The producers of Schmigadoon! made a big mistake in failing to publicize that voters should consider its entire score, not just the new material written for the stage production. With the songs created for the original TV series, Schmigadoon! is much stronger than Two Strangers. However, Two Strangers is still delightful, and this category will likely be where the Tonys can offer it their stamp of approval.
Best Revival of a Play
Becky Shaw by Gina Gionfriddo
MY PREDICTION: Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman
Every Brilliant Thing by Duncan Macmillan with Jonny Donahoe
Fallen Angels by Noel Coward
Oedipus by Robert Icke
Best Revival of a Musical
MY PICK and MY PREDICTION: Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Ragtime
Richard O’Brien’s The Rocky Horror Show
Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Play
Will Harrison for Punch
Nathan Lane for Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman
MY PREDICTION: John Lithgow for Giant
Daniel Radcliffe for Every Brilliant Thing
Mark Strong for Oedipus
Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Play
Rose Byrne for Fallen Angels
Carrie Coon for Bug
Susannah Flood for Liberation
MY PREDICTION: Lesley Manville for Oedipus
Kelli O’Hara for Fallen Angels
Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Musical
MY PICK: Nicholas Christopher for Chess
Luke Evans for Richard O’Brien’s The Rocky Horror Show
MY PREDICTION: Joshua Henry for Ragtime
Sam Tutty for Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)
Brandon Uranowitz for Ragtime
Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Musical
Sara Chase for Schmigadoon!
Stephanie Hsu for Richard O’Brien’s The Rocky Horror Show
MY PREDICTION: Caissie Levy for Ragtime
MY PICK: Marla Mindelle for Titaníque!
Christiani Pitts for Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)
Comedy almost never wins over tragedy during awards season, but Mindelle’s unique comic lunacy is Titaníque’s raison d’être and deserves to be celebrated.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Play
MY PREDICTION: Christopher Abbott for Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman
Danny Burstein for Marjorie Prime
Brandon J. Dirden for Waiting for Godot
Alden Ehrenreich for Becky Shaw
Ruben Santiago-Hudson for August Wilson’s Joe Turner’s Come and Gone
Richard Thomas for The Balusters
Probably the hardest category to predict, this could easily go to Ehrenreich, who is dynamite as a misanthropic anti-hero.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Play
Betsy Aidem for Liberation
Marylouise Burke for The Balusters
Aya Cash for Giant
MY PREDICTION: Laurie Metcalf for Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman
June Squibb for Marjorie Prime
It won’t happen, but I would REALLY love to see Burke pull an upset here. I’m sure Metcalf is brilliant (I don’t see Salesman until tomorrow night), but Burke is an invaluable New York stage veteran who’s never before even been nominated.
June 7th Update: Marylouise Burke deserves a Tony, but Laurie Metcalf deserves this Tony. She is stupendous as Linda Loman—an unqualified triumph.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Musical
Ali Louis Bourzgui for The Lost Boys
MY PREDICTION: André De Shields for Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Bryce Pinkham for Chess
MY PICK: Ben Levi Ross for Ragtime
Layton Williams for Titaníque!
This is another tough race. I really hope it’s De Shields or Ross over Bourzgui who doesn’t deliver a performance as much as a prolonged imitation of Kiefer Sutherland.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Musical
MY PREDICTION: Shoshana Bean for The Lost Boys
Hannah Cruz for Chess
Rachel Dratch for Richard O’Brien’s The Rocky Horror Show
MY PICK: Ana Gasteyer for Schmigadoon!
Nichelle Lewis for Ragtime
Best Scenic Design of a Play
MY PREDICTION: Hildegard Bechtler for Oedipus
Takeshi Kata for Bug
David Korins for Dog Day Afternoon
Chloe Lamford for Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman
David Rockwell for Fallen Angels
Don’t be surprised if Dog Day Afternoon takes this or even Salesman.
Best Scenic Design of a Musical
dots for Richard O’Brien’s The Rocky Horror Show
Soutra Gilmour for Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)
Rachel Hauck for Cats: The Jellicle Ball
MY PICK and MY PREDICTION: Dane Laffrey for The Lost Boys
Scott Pask for Schmigadoon!
Best Costume Design of a Play
Brenda Abbandandolo for Dog Day Afternoon
Qween Jean for Liberation
MY PREDICTION: Jeff Mahshie for Fallen Angels
Emilio Sosa for The Balusters
Paul Tazewell for August Wilson’s Joe Turner’s Come and Gone
Best Costume Design of a Musical
Linda Cho for Ragtime
Linda Cho for Schmigadoon!
MY PICK and MY PREDICTION: Qween Jean for Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Ryan Park for The Lost Boys
David I. Reynoso for Richard O’Brien’s The Rocky Horror Show
Best Lighting Design of a Play
Isabella Byrd for Dog Day Afternoon
Natasha Chivers for Oedipus
Stacey Derosier for August Wilson’s Joe Turner’s Come and Gone
Heather Gilbert for Bug
Heather Gilbert for The Fear of 13
MY PREDICTION: Jack Knowles for Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman
Best Lighting Design of a Musical
Kevin Adams for Chess
MY PREDICTION: Jen Schriever and Michael Arden for The Lost Boys
Jane Cox for Richard O’Brien’s The Rocky Horror Show
MY PICK: Adam Honoré and Donald Holder (Lighting Design) and 59 Studio (Projection Design) for Ragtime
Donald Holder for Schmigadoon!
Adam Honoré for Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Best Sound Design of a Play
Justin Ellington for August Wilson’s Joe Turner’s Come and Gone
MY PREDICTION: Tom Gibbons for Oedipus
Lee Kinney for The Fear of 13
Josh Schmidt for Bug
Mikaal Sulaiman for Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman
Best Sound Design of a Musical
Adam Fisher for The Lost Boys
MY PREDICTION: Kai Harada for Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Kai Harada for Ragtime
Brian Ronan for Richard O’Brien’s The Rocky Horror Show
MY PICK: Walter Trarbach for Schmigadoon!
More than in any other category, I let my own wishful thinking be a factor here. The sound design of The Lost Boys, which is tantamount to theatrical assault, has a very good chance of winning. If it does, it’s a good indication that the majority of voters conflate volume with rock and roll.
Best Direction of a Play
Nicholas Hytner for Giant
Robert Icke for Oedipus
Kenny Leon for The Balusters
MY PREDICTION: Joe Mantello for Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman
Whitney White for Liberation
Best Direction of a Musical
Michael Arden for The Lost Boys
Lear deBessonet for Ragtime
Christopher Gattelli for Schmigadoon!
Tim Jackson for Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)
MY PICK and MY PREDICTION: Zhailon Levingston and Bill Rauch for Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Best Choreography
MY PICK: Christopher Gattelli for Schmigadoon!
Lauren Yalango-Grant and Christopher Cree Grant for The Lost Boys
MY PREDICTION: Omari Wiles and Arturo Lyons for Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Ellenore Scott for Ragtime
Ani Taj for Richard O’Brien’s The Rocky Horror Show
Best Orchestrations
MY PICK and MY PREDICTION: Doug Besterman and Mike Morris for Schmigadoon!
Ethan Popp, Adrianne “AG” Gonzalez, Gabriel Mann, Kyler England for The Lost Boys
Lux Pyramid for Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)
Andrew Lloyd Webber, David Wilson, Trevor Holder and Doug Schadt for Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Brian Usifer for Chess
a key to the pictures
My top 10 favorite Tony performances in chronological order…
The original Broadway cast of Dreamgirls performs “It’s All Over” and “And I Am Telling You…” at the 1982 Tony Awards
Betty Buckley and the original Broadway cast of Cats perform “Memory” and “Jellicle Song” at the 1983 Tony Awards
Angela Lansbury and Bea Arthur recreate “Bosom Buddies” from Mame at the 1987 Tony Awards
Linda Lavin and Jonathan Silverman in a scene from Broadway Bound at the 1987 Tony Awards (back when the nominated plays still got to perform on the broadcast—bring them back!)
Michael Jeter and Brent Barrett (who’d replaced the gone far too soon David Carroll) perform “Let’s Raise a Glass” from Grand Hotel at the 1990 Tony Awards
The original Broadway cast of The Will Rogers Follies performs “Our Favorite Son” at the 1991 Tony Awards
Chita Rivera, Brent Carver, Anthony Crivello and the company of Kiss of the Spider Woman perform “Where You Are” at the 1993 Tony Awards
Glenn Close performs “As If We Never Said Goodbye” from Sunset Blvd. at the 1995 Tony Awards
Bebe Neuwirth, Ann Reinking, and the Company of Chicago perform a medley of “All That Jazz” and the “Hot Honey Rag” at the 1997 Tony Awards
The original Broadway cast of The Life performs “My Body” at the 1997 Tony Awards
Hi Sloan! Just a note: I understand that American Players Theatre will be given this year's Tony for best American Regional Theatre. This is great news and I hope to see the award given in the pre-show. APT is a fabulous theatre for many reasons and 1 of my favorite places to work.
❤️
Pretty close!